November 2018

ABSTRACTS 

External Resources and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of South Asian Countries​
Imtiaz Arif
Lubna Khan
Syed Ali Raza

Abstract: This study aims to investigate the role of three important external resources on the economic growth of leading South Asian countries. A sample of four countries is studied from 1983 to 2014. Empirical analyses are carried out in two phases. First, we have checked the combined effect using CD test, CIPS, Pedroni, and Westerlund panel cointegration, pooled mean group (PMG) framework and Heterogeneous non-causality test. In the second phase, we compared the regional and country-wise estimations using ARDL bound testing, stability test, and Granger causality. Results suggest that remittances play a vital role in the economic growth of selected South Asian countries, whereas, imports and foreign direct investment found to be insignificant. Also, while evaluating the same model for the individual countries using the ARDL estimations also reveal that remittances significantly contribute to the economies of Pakistan and Sri Lanka and imports found to be negatively related with economic growth in the same economies. However, imports showed a strong relationship with the economic growth of Bangladesh. Thus, this paper has drawn some insights for the policymakers.

Keywords: external resources; GDP; South Asian countries; cross-sectional dependence; heterogeneity; PMG framework

JEL Classification: O, O5, O57


Vector Error Correction Model on FDI and their Impact in the Republic of Macedonia​
Irena Kikerkova
Elena Naumovska
Katerina Toshevska-Trpchevska
Elena Makrevska Disoska

Abstract: The subject of this paper is the foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow in Macedonia and its impact upon the economic growth and development of the country. Its basic purpose is to analyse the interconnection of FDI with a number of economic, political and institutional variables in Macedonia. We decided to apply Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) on FDI impact upon the Macedonian economy. The FDI indicator is calculated as a function of certain fundamental economic variables (GDP growth rate, labor productivity rate, openness to trade, current account balance) as well as of Worldwide Governance Indicators (control of corruption, government effectiveness, political stability, regulatory quality and rule of law). Results obtained by the econometric model should provide relevant conclusions on the impact of the up-to-date FDI inflow upon the growth and development of the Macedonian economy.

Keywords: foreign direct investment; Technological Industrial Development Zones (TIDZ); economic and institutional variables; Vector Error Correction Model; Republic of Macedonia

JEL Classification: F21


Is Russia Rationally Developing its Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises? An Analysis of Regional Production Functions
Pinkovetskaia Iuliia
Ginzburg Maria

Abstract: The purpose of this study was to examine if it makes sense to further stimulate the development of small and medium-sized businesses in Russia by the State. For this purpose, the authors formulated the following hypotheses: production functions can be used to explore opportunities to promote SMEs in Russia (hypothesis 1). However, if the values of degrees of factors are positive, it can be argued that SMEs development can be achieved by State measures to facilitate an increase in labour costs and investment in fixed assets of SMEs (hypothesis 2). To check formulated hypotheses we have developed production functions, which reflect dependences between SMEs turnover from investments in fixed assets and employees wage. Regression analysis was used to determine the parameters of production functions. While conducting calculations, we used the data of total observation of SMEs activities, provided by the Federal Statistical Service in 83 regions of the Russian Federation for the year 2015. Taking into consideration an important role of SMEs in Russian economy, the results of this research might help government bodies in resource distribution for particular regions and sectors of economy in these regions. From methodological point of view this research shows, that production functions might be used in Development Strategy of SMEs for the period of up to 2030, which establishes double production growth in SMEs.

Keywords: SME; production function; turnover; Cobb-Douglas function; wage

JEL Classification: C31, H5, L26, O52, R11


Oil Shocks and the Excise Duty Tax in a DSGE Model Setting
Črt Lenarčič

Abstract: This paper sets up a small open economy general equilibrium model operating in a monetary union. Exogenous oil shocks that hit the modelled economy are alleviated by introducing a pro-cyclical excise duty tax rule on oil prices. It provides a model-based theoretical background for studying a fiscal response of curbing the negative effects of volatile global oil prices on inflation. Against this backdrop, we estimate the key parameters of the DSGE model and simulate different responses of the fiscal policy tax rule, based on different values of the responsiveness of the excise duty parameter.

Keywords: Oil shocks; fiscal policy tax rule; DSGE model; inflation

JEL Classification: E31, E32, E62


Macroeconomic and Demographic Determinants of Residential Property Prices in Malaysia
Ivan D. Trofimov
Nazaria Md. Aris
Dickson C. D. Xuan

Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between residential property prices and macroeconomic and demographic determinants in Malaysia. In the years following the Asian financial crisis, property prices in Malaysia rose substantially, resulting in an affordability crisis and ultimately policy responses to the problem. Using unit root, Johansen-Juselius cointegration, VECM-based Granger causality tests and variance decomposition, and considering quarterly data that covers 2000-2015 period, we established that residential property price growth is principally driven by strong demographic performance and population growth and is backed by the low interest rate environment and rising consumer prices. Household income and level of GDP do not appear to contribute to property price growth. Certain distortions and asymmetries in the Malaysian real estate markets are documented: oversupply in the higher price segment of the market coupled with the lack of affordable housing in the lower price segment; household income growth lagging behind GDP and property price growth, thereby dampening housing demand; growing rental markets in major urban areas as a result of the affordability crisis; and a quality mismatch between buyers’ preferences and housing supply.

Keywords: property prices; housing; cointegration

JEL Classification: C22, R21, R38


Lessons from a Review of Money, Banking, and the Business Cycle
Brian P. Simpson

Abstract: Shawn Ritenour provides a review of my two-volume book titled Money, Banking, and the Business Cycle in the winter 2016 issue of The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics. This paper constitutes a response to some of the criticisms of the book in his review. In this response, I discuss topics such as the nature of profits, the sustainability of changes in time preference, the role of changes in prices versus changes in spending in the business cycle, the relationship between interest rates and the rate of profit, the nature of fraud, and the nature of value. I also discuss whether the structure of production can be measured using the average period of production. I address other issues raised by Ritenour as well. This discussion sheds light on Austrian business cycle theory and the nature of the business cycle.

Keywords: Austrian business cycle theory; nature of profits; time preference; interest rates; equation of exchange; nature of value; average period of production

JEL Classification: B, B5, B53
 

Income Approach to Business Valuation: Russian Perspective​
Olga Almabekova
Roman Kuzmich
Elena Antosik

Abstract: In crisis times, making the choice of a company to invest becomes challenging for a potential investor due to the uncertainty of business environment and dim future prospects. As for industries, the decision is often made in favor of the companies satisfying consumers’ basic needs. The value of a business is known to be the main indicator of the company’s reliability and investment attractiveness. The article provides substantiation of the reliability of income approach for business valuation in the time of economic crisis in Russia and presents an algorithm for implementing the cash flow discounting method within the framework of income approach using the case for a middle-sized construction company. The choice of the object for the research is due to the investment attractiveness of the construction industry in a big industrial city of Krasnoyarsk in the North East of Russia.

Keywords: income approach; business value; investment

JEL Classification: G11, G17


Social Entrepreneurship: Strategic Development in Croatia
Marko Kolaković
Mladen Turuk
Ivan Turčić

Abstract: Social Entrepreneurship is an area of entrepreneurship and economics in general that have become more and more popular in the last 30 years across the whole globe. However, the topics related to social entrepreneurship came in focus in Croatia during the past years due to developing and adopting the Strategy for the Development of Social Entrepreneurship in the Republic of Croatia for the period from 2015 to 2020. This paper will provide an overview of the relevant definitions of social entrepreneurship, social entrepreneur and social enterprise (with reference to the Strategy). The aim of this paper is to analyse the strategic framework for development of social entrepreneurship in Croatia and finally, to propose the direction of development of social entrepreneurship in Croatia in the future.

Keywords: social entrepreneurship in Croatia; national strategy of social entrepreneurship; strategic development

JEL Classification: L26, L31