***U sklopu ROSPEC projekta objavljeni su sljedeći znanstveni radovi:
Bogdan, Željko; Cota, Boris; Erjavec, Nataša
Current Account Balance and Export Performances: Evidence Based on New EU Countries // Zagreb international review of economics & business, 20 (2017), 2; 33-48.
In this paper, we investigate whether the differences in the current account balance and export performances for a new EU countries are a result of exchange rate policies. The analysis shows that countries with a flexible exchange rate have better export performances and the current account balance in the pre-crisis period. The obtained results show that movements in the current account balance are mainly driven by domestic variables. In the countries with a flexible exchange rate, real and nominal depreciation affects export positively although the magnitude of these effects is tiny and limited to the crisis period. These results point to a higher significance of non-price competitiveness on export which should be a future research topic.
Rogić Dumančić, Lucija; Mačkić, Velibor.
What Drives Competitiveness: The Case of New EU Member States // RSEP International Conferences on Social Issues and Economic Studies.
2017. 161-175
The importance of competitiveness of the contemporary economies has been a popular topic among economists, politicians and the general public. Nevertheless, there is little consensus based on empirical findings on what are the sources of nation’s competitiveness, especially in the context of an economic and political union like the EU. Thus, the goal of this paper is to empirically pinpoint the determinants of competitiveness for eleven new EU member states (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia). We measure competitiveness through GDP per person employed while our explanatory variables are divided into two groups of determinants: price and non-price competitiveness factors. Consequently, we set the following hypothesis that the role of non-price competitiveness factors is more important compared to price competitiveness factors in the new EU member states. In order to test it, we employ linear dynamic panel model based on one step GMM estimator (Arellano-Bond) on the yearly data, covering the period from 1999 to 2016. The most interesting results refer to the positive role of the government and the structure of exported goods (both non-price competitiveness factors). The relevance of our result extends beyond this sample, as it demonstrates the necessity of examining factors other than level of wages, prices and exchange rates when looking at the competitiveness of contemporary economies.
Gardijan, Margareta; Lukač, Zrinka: Measuring the relative efficiency of the food and drink industry in the chosen EU countries using the data envelopment analysis with missing data. Central European Journal of Operations Research, (2018) pp.1-19
The food and drink industry is one of the leading manufacturing sectors in the economies of many EU countries. However, when compared to other global food and drink producers, the EU food and drink industry has been facing a persistent decrease in competitiveness in past decades. In this paper, we analyse companies from the food and drink industry in the selected EU countries. The sample includes more than 6000 companies from the food industry and more than 1000 companies from the drink industry in the selected EU countries in the period from 2011 to 2015. Given the available financial data for the food and drink companies from the Amadeus database, we calculate their liquidity, leverage, activity and profitability ratios and evaluate their relative efficiency using multiple criteria. The efficiency is defined in terms of data envelopment analysis using financial ratios as inputs and outputs in the BCC output-oriented model. Findings reveal which countries have the greatest proportion of efficient companies and what the main areas of (in)efficiency for companies within each country are. The efficiency is analysed with regard to the size of the companies.
Bogdan, Željko: Exports and exchange rate regimes in new eu countries: did economies with fixed exchange rate regimes face with higher drop in unit labor costs?; 9th International Conference "An Enterprise Odyssey: Managing Change to Achieve Quality Development” (2018)
This paper will investigate whether the differences in the exports performances in new EU countries are a result of different exchange rate regimes. Higher exports can be connected with improved price and non-price competitiveness. However, better price competitiveness could be achieved via nominal depreciation or relatively cheaper goods (fall in the relative prices or relative unit labor costs). Keep in mind that nominal depreciation is impossible in countries using fixed exchange rate regime and the real depreciation can be done using fall in relative prices or (relative) unit labor costs. This paper is focused on unit labor costs and studies whether their fall enabled to restore price competitiveness in few new EU members. The answer is positive but valid only in the part of the observed period (limited primarily on the recent crisis period).
Raguž Krištić, Irena; Rogić Dumančić, Lucija: Product Market Integration in the Euro Area; 9th International Conference "An Enterprise Odyssey: Managing Change to Achieve Quality Development” (2018)
The goal of this paper is to determine if the euro area (EA) accession and membership had a significant impact on the product market integration in the EA countries. The paper employs LM and RALS-LM unit root tests with two breaks on the seasonally adjusted monthly Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), from 1996:01 to 2017:05. We find EA-accession related breaks in most of the EA11 countries, but, apart from Malta, no such breaks for the later-EA-joiners. However, EA formation had a significant impact on both EA and non-EA countries at that time. We also find greater product market integration and less adverse effects after negative shocks in the EA member countries. However, based on unit root analysis, we find that EA membership in not a sufficient condition for product market integration and integration is not necessarily related to being an EA member.
Boris Cota; Nataša Erjavec; Željko Bogdan; The Role of The Exchange Rate Regime in the Current Account Balance and Export Performances: Evidence Based on New EU Countries, Economic Research, VOl. 31; 2018
Abstract:
In this paper, we investigate whether the differences in the current account balance and export performances for a new EU countries are a result of exchange rate policies. The analysis shows that countries with a flexible exchange rate have better export performances and the current account balance in the pre-crisis period. The obtained results show that movements in the current account balance are mainly driven by domestic variables. In the countries with a flexible exchange rate, real and nominal depreciation affects export positively although the magnitude of these effects is tiny and limited to the crisis period. These results point to a higher significance of non-price competitiveness on export which should be a future research topic.
Lukač, Zrinka; Gardijan, Margareta: Measuring the Efficiency of the Food Industry in Central and East European Countries by using the Data Envelopment Analysis Approach; Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems - Volume 1: ICORES, 385-392, 2017, Porto, Portugal
Abstract: The food industry plays an important role in economy of many countries. It is the leading manufacturing industry in EU in terms of turnover, value added and employment. However, it has been facing a decrease in competitiveness lately. In this paper we study the competitiveness of very large companies from the food industry sector in central and east European countries (CEE) by measuring their efficiency within the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach. The efficiency analysis is conducted by using the BCC model where certain financial ratios are used as its inputs and outputs. The study includes more than 200 very large companies from 13 CEE countries over time period from 2005-2013. The research results have shown that although some countries were more efficient than the others during the entire research period, no patterns in the efficiency of the food industry subsectors could be recognised. On the other hand, DEA approach enabled recognizing sources of inefficiency on a national level.
Željko Bogdan; Boris Cota; Nataša Erjavec; Current Account Balance and Export Performances in New EU Countries - Does Exchange Rate Regime Matter; 8th International Conference "An Enterprise Odyssey: Saving the Sinking SHip Through Human Capital" Zagreb, Hrvatska, 08-11.06.2016.(2016). str- 366-380
Abstract: During the time before the crisis (sometimes referenced as recession or downturn) period Slovakia, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovenia were the top exporters among new EU-members. All of them were characterized by flexible exchange rate regime and question “Did it stimulate export became justifiable?” In spite of the fact that exchange rate is not only one export determinant, our research interest is led by differences in exchange rate regimes. Although, all new EU members faced with real appreciation, our results show that countries with flexible exchange rate have better export performance. The results also show that movements in current account are mainly driven by domestic variables.
*** U sklopu ROSPEC projekta, u ožujku 2017. godine, izlagani su preliminarni rezultati istraživanja pod naslovom "Competitiveness, consumer confidence and election outcomes" na međunarodnoj konferenciji 6th International Conference on Global Research Issues in Social Science, Cape Town, JAR. (Autori: Velibor Mačkić, Petar Sorić, Ivana Lolić)
Abstract: The literature on the political business cycle (PBC) suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic conditions in order to increase their chances of re-election. The list of variables that have been found to have a significant effect on the probability of re-election includes macroeconomic (inflation rate, unemployment rate, output growth rate) and fiscal (budget balance, level of expenditures and tax revenues) outcomes. This paper focuses on the question whether price and non-price competitiveness indicators together with consumer confidence index have a statistically significant effect. Thus, this paper addresses two empirical questions. First, in light of the globalisation process and on-going comparisons among national economies, could price and non-price indicators serve as a proxy for voters when deciding on whether to penalise or reward the incumbent? And second, based on the economic theory of voting, is consumer confidence index a better indicator of re-election probability compared to unemployment and output growth rates? Using a dataset of EU member states over the 2000-2015 period and by applying probit/logit analysis we test both questions.
*** U sklopu ROSPEC projekta održane su 4 radionice za studente:
Bogdan, Željko; Cota, Boris; Erjavec, Nataša
Current Account Balance and Export Performances: Evidence Based on New EU Countries // Zagreb international review of economics & business, 20 (2017), 2; 33-48.
In this paper, we investigate whether the differences in the current account balance and export performances for a new EU countries are a result of exchange rate policies. The analysis shows that countries with a flexible exchange rate have better export performances and the current account balance in the pre-crisis period. The obtained results show that movements in the current account balance are mainly driven by domestic variables. In the countries with a flexible exchange rate, real and nominal depreciation affects export positively although the magnitude of these effects is tiny and limited to the crisis period. These results point to a higher significance of non-price competitiveness on export which should be a future research topic.
Rogić Dumančić, Lucija; Mačkić, Velibor.
What Drives Competitiveness: The Case of New EU Member States // RSEP International Conferences on Social Issues and Economic Studies.
2017. 161-175
The importance of competitiveness of the contemporary economies has been a popular topic among economists, politicians and the general public. Nevertheless, there is little consensus based on empirical findings on what are the sources of nation’s competitiveness, especially in the context of an economic and political union like the EU. Thus, the goal of this paper is to empirically pinpoint the determinants of competitiveness for eleven new EU member states (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia). We measure competitiveness through GDP per person employed while our explanatory variables are divided into two groups of determinants: price and non-price competitiveness factors. Consequently, we set the following hypothesis that the role of non-price competitiveness factors is more important compared to price competitiveness factors in the new EU member states. In order to test it, we employ linear dynamic panel model based on one step GMM estimator (Arellano-Bond) on the yearly data, covering the period from 1999 to 2016. The most interesting results refer to the positive role of the government and the structure of exported goods (both non-price competitiveness factors). The relevance of our result extends beyond this sample, as it demonstrates the necessity of examining factors other than level of wages, prices and exchange rates when looking at the competitiveness of contemporary economies.
Gardijan, Margareta; Lukač, Zrinka: Measuring the relative efficiency of the food and drink industry in the chosen EU countries using the data envelopment analysis with missing data. Central European Journal of Operations Research, (2018) pp.1-19
The food and drink industry is one of the leading manufacturing sectors in the economies of many EU countries. However, when compared to other global food and drink producers, the EU food and drink industry has been facing a persistent decrease in competitiveness in past decades. In this paper, we analyse companies from the food and drink industry in the selected EU countries. The sample includes more than 6000 companies from the food industry and more than 1000 companies from the drink industry in the selected EU countries in the period from 2011 to 2015. Given the available financial data for the food and drink companies from the Amadeus database, we calculate their liquidity, leverage, activity and profitability ratios and evaluate their relative efficiency using multiple criteria. The efficiency is defined in terms of data envelopment analysis using financial ratios as inputs and outputs in the BCC output-oriented model. Findings reveal which countries have the greatest proportion of efficient companies and what the main areas of (in)efficiency for companies within each country are. The efficiency is analysed with regard to the size of the companies.
Bogdan, Željko: Exports and exchange rate regimes in new eu countries: did economies with fixed exchange rate regimes face with higher drop in unit labor costs?; 9th International Conference "An Enterprise Odyssey: Managing Change to Achieve Quality Development” (2018)
This paper will investigate whether the differences in the exports performances in new EU countries are a result of different exchange rate regimes. Higher exports can be connected with improved price and non-price competitiveness. However, better price competitiveness could be achieved via nominal depreciation or relatively cheaper goods (fall in the relative prices or relative unit labor costs). Keep in mind that nominal depreciation is impossible in countries using fixed exchange rate regime and the real depreciation can be done using fall in relative prices or (relative) unit labor costs. This paper is focused on unit labor costs and studies whether their fall enabled to restore price competitiveness in few new EU members. The answer is positive but valid only in the part of the observed period (limited primarily on the recent crisis period).
Raguž Krištić, Irena; Rogić Dumančić, Lucija: Product Market Integration in the Euro Area; 9th International Conference "An Enterprise Odyssey: Managing Change to Achieve Quality Development” (2018)
The goal of this paper is to determine if the euro area (EA) accession and membership had a significant impact on the product market integration in the EA countries. The paper employs LM and RALS-LM unit root tests with two breaks on the seasonally adjusted monthly Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), from 1996:01 to 2017:05. We find EA-accession related breaks in most of the EA11 countries, but, apart from Malta, no such breaks for the later-EA-joiners. However, EA formation had a significant impact on both EA and non-EA countries at that time. We also find greater product market integration and less adverse effects after negative shocks in the EA member countries. However, based on unit root analysis, we find that EA membership in not a sufficient condition for product market integration and integration is not necessarily related to being an EA member.
Boris Cota; Nataša Erjavec; Željko Bogdan; The Role of The Exchange Rate Regime in the Current Account Balance and Export Performances: Evidence Based on New EU Countries, Economic Research, VOl. 31; 2018
Abstract:
In this paper, we investigate whether the differences in the current account balance and export performances for a new EU countries are a result of exchange rate policies. The analysis shows that countries with a flexible exchange rate have better export performances and the current account balance in the pre-crisis period. The obtained results show that movements in the current account balance are mainly driven by domestic variables. In the countries with a flexible exchange rate, real and nominal depreciation affects export positively although the magnitude of these effects is tiny and limited to the crisis period. These results point to a higher significance of non-price competitiveness on export which should be a future research topic.
Lukač, Zrinka; Gardijan, Margareta: Measuring the Efficiency of the Food Industry in Central and East European Countries by using the Data Envelopment Analysis Approach; Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems - Volume 1: ICORES, 385-392, 2017, Porto, Portugal
Abstract: The food industry plays an important role in economy of many countries. It is the leading manufacturing industry in EU in terms of turnover, value added and employment. However, it has been facing a decrease in competitiveness lately. In this paper we study the competitiveness of very large companies from the food industry sector in central and east European countries (CEE) by measuring their efficiency within the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach. The efficiency analysis is conducted by using the BCC model where certain financial ratios are used as its inputs and outputs. The study includes more than 200 very large companies from 13 CEE countries over time period from 2005-2013. The research results have shown that although some countries were more efficient than the others during the entire research period, no patterns in the efficiency of the food industry subsectors could be recognised. On the other hand, DEA approach enabled recognizing sources of inefficiency on a national level.
Željko Bogdan; Boris Cota; Nataša Erjavec; Current Account Balance and Export Performances in New EU Countries - Does Exchange Rate Regime Matter; 8th International Conference "An Enterprise Odyssey: Saving the Sinking SHip Through Human Capital" Zagreb, Hrvatska, 08-11.06.2016.(2016). str- 366-380
Abstract: During the time before the crisis (sometimes referenced as recession or downturn) period Slovakia, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovenia were the top exporters among new EU-members. All of them were characterized by flexible exchange rate regime and question “Did it stimulate export became justifiable?” In spite of the fact that exchange rate is not only one export determinant, our research interest is led by differences in exchange rate regimes. Although, all new EU members faced with real appreciation, our results show that countries with flexible exchange rate have better export performance. The results also show that movements in current account are mainly driven by domestic variables.
*** U sklopu ROSPEC projekta, u ožujku 2017. godine, izlagani su preliminarni rezultati istraživanja pod naslovom "Competitiveness, consumer confidence and election outcomes" na međunarodnoj konferenciji 6th International Conference on Global Research Issues in Social Science, Cape Town, JAR. (Autori: Velibor Mačkić, Petar Sorić, Ivana Lolić)
Abstract: The literature on the political business cycle (PBC) suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic conditions in order to increase their chances of re-election. The list of variables that have been found to have a significant effect on the probability of re-election includes macroeconomic (inflation rate, unemployment rate, output growth rate) and fiscal (budget balance, level of expenditures and tax revenues) outcomes. This paper focuses on the question whether price and non-price competitiveness indicators together with consumer confidence index have a statistically significant effect. Thus, this paper addresses two empirical questions. First, in light of the globalisation process and on-going comparisons among national economies, could price and non-price indicators serve as a proxy for voters when deciding on whether to penalise or reward the incumbent? And second, based on the economic theory of voting, is consumer confidence index a better indicator of re-election probability compared to unemployment and output growth rates? Using a dataset of EU member states over the 2000-2015 period and by applying probit/logit analysis we test both questions.
*** U sklopu ROSPEC projekta održane su 4 radionice za studente:
(1) U rujnu 2016. održana je radionica za studente pod nazivom "Upoznavanje sa panel modelima" na Ekonomskom fakultetu u Zagrebu.
Cilj radionice bio je približiti panel modele studentima Ekonomskog fakulteta. U okviru radionice studentima su se prezentirale osnove panel modela
te su bili upoznati sa radom u Stata-i i procijenili panel model na primjeru odabranih CEE zemalja EU. Radionica je rezultat stručnog usavršavanja
suradnice Lucije Rogić Dumančić: Quantitative Methods of market Regulation, Open Economy in Macroeconomics, Dynamic and Non-linear Panel Data (Barcelona Španjolska)
(2) U travnju 2017., suradnik doc.dr.sc. Velibor Mačkić održao je drugu radionicu za studente pod nazivom "Upoznavanje sa probit/logit modelima" na Ekonomskom
fakultetu u Zagrebu. Cilj radionice je približiti probit/logit modele studentima Ekonomskog fakulteta. U okviru radionice studentima su se prezentirale osnove modela,
naučili su raditi u statističkom programu EViews te se procijenio probit/logit model temeljem dostupnih politoloških, mikro- i makroekonomskih baza podataka. Radionica je rezultat profesionalnog usavršavanja suradnika unutar HRZZ projekta: Microeconometrics, Macroeconomic Modelling & Forecasting, Eviews Summer School (Cambrige, London, Engleska)
Cilj radionice bio je približiti panel modele studentima Ekonomskog fakulteta. U okviru radionice studentima su se prezentirale osnove panel modela
te su bili upoznati sa radom u Stata-i i procijenili panel model na primjeru odabranih CEE zemalja EU. Radionica je rezultat stručnog usavršavanja
suradnice Lucije Rogić Dumančić: Quantitative Methods of market Regulation, Open Economy in Macroeconomics, Dynamic and Non-linear Panel Data (Barcelona Španjolska)
(2) U travnju 2017., suradnik doc.dr.sc. Velibor Mačkić održao je drugu radionicu za studente pod nazivom "Upoznavanje sa probit/logit modelima" na Ekonomskom
fakultetu u Zagrebu. Cilj radionice je približiti probit/logit modele studentima Ekonomskog fakulteta. U okviru radionice studentima su se prezentirale osnove modela,
naučili su raditi u statističkom programu EViews te se procijenio probit/logit model temeljem dostupnih politoloških, mikro- i makroekonomskih baza podataka. Radionica je rezultat profesionalnog usavršavanja suradnika unutar HRZZ projekta: Microeconometrics, Macroeconomic Modelling & Forecasting, Eviews Summer School (Cambrige, London, Engleska)
(3) U travnju 2018. suradnik doc.dr.sc. Željko Bogdan održao je treću radionicu za studente pod nazivom " Uloga institucija u gospodarskom rastu i konkurentnosti" na Ekonomskom fakultetu u Zagrebu. Cilj radionice je istaknuti pored standardnih faktora gospodarskog rasta i ulogu kvalitetnih institucija, te kako se institucionalni okvir zatim odražava na konkurentnost gospodarstva? U okviru radionice studentima će se prezentirati utjecaj politika vlade na gospodarski rast, konkurentnost i atraktivnost gospodarstva. Radionica je rezultat profesionalnog usavršavanja suradnika unutar HRZZ projekta na Luiss sveučilištu u Italiji.
(4) U travnju 2018. suradnica izv.prof.dr.sc. Zrinka Lukač održala je četvrtu radionicu za studente pod nazivom "Behavioral Economics in Competition and Consumer Policy". Ova radionica daje uvod u implikacije ekonomije ponašanja za tržišno natjecanje i opću politiku i raspravlja o načinu na koji odlučivanje potrošača možda nije potpuno racionalno i kako tvrtke mogu iskoristiti takve potrošače. Radionica je rezultat profesionalnog usavršavanja suradnice unutar HRZZ projekta na Essex Summers School U Oxfordu.
**** U sklopu ROSPEC projekta formirana je baza podataka cjenovnih i ne-cjenovnih faktora konkurentnosti temeljem sljedećih baza: WIIW (vodeći indikatori na mjesečnoj razini (1990.- 2015) i vremenska serija na godišnjoj razini (1960.-2015.) za 22 zemlje središnje, istočne i jugoistočne Europe – nacionalni računi, proizvodnja, tržište radne snage, plaće, cijene, međunarodna trgovina, investicije, te baza podataka o direktnim stranim investicijama za 23 zemlje središnje, istočne i jugoistočne Europe (1990.-2015.)), World Economic Forum, Eurostat, BIS, Bruegel Institute, IMF – International Finance Statistics, OECD, IMD i Amadeus