A new presentation within the Brown Bag Seminar cycle will be held on February 28, 2019 by Assist. Prof. Petar Sorić, PhD from the Department of Statistics. It will present the emerging work Consumer confidence, media, political preference and economy in the Republic of Croatia, which was written in co-authorship with the Assoc. Prof. Andrija Henjak, PhD (Faculty of Political Sciences) and Prof. Mirjana Čižmešija, PhD (FEB ZG).
Brown Bag Seminar will be held in Hall 51 starting at 2 PM.
Presentation summary:
Republic of Croatia in international comparison is considered as one of the "losers" of the transition process, and economically one of the most unsuccessful EU countries. At the same time, its political system is characterized in the long term by the outstanding stability of the parliamentary power of the two largest parties.
This paper therefore econometrically inquire into the interconnectedness of political preferences of voters (measured by Cro Demoskop i Crobarometar polls), macroeconomic results, media reports on economy and consumer confidence. Thereat, authors construct unique monthly indicators of the corruption, ideological polarization and media economic news; intended to incorporate the specificities of the Croatian political-economic system into the analyzed models.
The econometric results show that the political preferences of Croatian voters at the aggregate level are not determined by macroeconomic results. However, the existence of two-way Granger's causality between media articles and consumer confidence has been confirmed, but without direct impact on the real economy.
Description of the Brown bag concept:
The Brown Bag Seminar (BBS) is an informal one-hour workshop with aim of presenting research in different stages of design (ideas, rounded theoretical framework, conducted empirical research, etc.), promoting discussion and creating a stimulating environment focused on constructive discussion between exhibitors and the rest of participants of the seminar. The basic idea of the BBS is to create a platform where at least once a month, the FEB ZG employees will have the opportunity to present the ideas and articles they work on within their scientific-research work.
We invite you to respond and help with your constructive comments to exhibitors, and expose by yourself the topics you are currently working on, unpublished works or present the research ideas you are thinking about.