The ninth Brown Bag Seminar will be held on January 31, 2019 at 14:00 in Hall 51 at the Faculty of Economics & Business. The presentation will be held by Ms. Marina Matošec, MBA, of the Department of Statistics, who will present the emerging doctoral work Modeling the effects of fiscal policy on consumer confidence as predictor of the economic activity.
Presentation summary:
Indicators of economic sentiment, which reflect the perceptions, expectations and general level of optimism of economic actors, are currently very popular in economic analyzes and the media. Their introduction into economic research allows the inclusion of behavioral factors into economic models, and the advantage is also being published relatively fast compared to standard macroeconomic indicators. Thus, consumer confidence indicators often stand out as leading indicators. Although there is no consensus in the literature as to their ability to accurately forecast macroeconomic aggregates, empirical evidence is in favor of good prediction of consumer confidence indicators for the countries of Europe. In the context of this paper, the effects of fiscal policy measures on consumer confidence in the EU member states are being examined, as a predictor of economic activity. Instead of observing the standard direct effect of fiscal policy on economic activity through a keynotes multiplier, it examines whether the holders of fiscal power can act indirectly and increase the effectiveness of the measures taken, primarily affecting consumer confidence or optimism.
The Brown Bag Seminar (BBS) is an informal workshop with aim to presenting research in different stages of design (ideas, rounded theoretical framework, conducted empirical research, etc.), promoting discussion and creating a stimulating environment focused on constructive discussion between exhibitors and the rest of participants of the seminar. The basic idea of the BBS is to create a platform where the FEB ZG employees will have the opportunity to present the ideas and articles they work on within their scientific-research work.
Presentation summary:
Indicators of economic sentiment, which reflect the perceptions, expectations and general level of optimism of economic actors, are currently very popular in economic analyzes and the media. Their introduction into economic research allows the inclusion of behavioral factors into economic models, and the advantage is also being published relatively fast compared to standard macroeconomic indicators. Thus, consumer confidence indicators often stand out as leading indicators. Although there is no consensus in the literature as to their ability to accurately forecast macroeconomic aggregates, empirical evidence is in favor of good prediction of consumer confidence indicators for the countries of Europe. In the context of this paper, the effects of fiscal policy measures on consumer confidence in the EU member states are being examined, as a predictor of economic activity. Instead of observing the standard direct effect of fiscal policy on economic activity through a keynotes multiplier, it examines whether the holders of fiscal power can act indirectly and increase the effectiveness of the measures taken, primarily affecting consumer confidence or optimism.
The Brown Bag Seminar (BBS) is an informal workshop with aim to presenting research in different stages of design (ideas, rounded theoretical framework, conducted empirical research, etc.), promoting discussion and creating a stimulating environment focused on constructive discussion between exhibitors and the rest of participants of the seminar. The basic idea of the BBS is to create a platform where the FEB ZG employees will have the opportunity to present the ideas and articles they work on within their scientific-research work.