Invitation to the 24th Brown Bag Seminar
We invite you to the new Brown Bag Seminar, which will take place on Thursday, February 6, 2020, at the Faculty of Economics and Business in Zagreb in Hall 51 starting at 2:00 pm. The cycle of Brown Bag Seminars will be continued by Masoud Shirazi, Ph.D. with Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran, who will present the work „A Dynamic Analysis on Crude Oil Trade Network and it’s Determinants (Dynamic Complex Network Connectedness Measure)“.
Summary of the presentation:
This article characterizes a dynamic crude oil trade network of Eastern Europe and Eurasia using the network connectedness measure of Diebold and Yilmaz (2014, 2015) and the existence of asymmetric reaction of crude oil bilateral trade flow in response to the positive and negative changes of its key determinants using the nonlinear panel autoregressive distributed lag model during 1980–2018. Results indicate the existence of large and time-varying spillovers with a considerable explanatory power among the crude oil trade flow volatility of Iran, Russia, the US, and Saudi Arabia in Eastern Europe and Eurasia crude oil trade network. The findings also show that the crude oil trade flow of Eastern Europe and Eurasia experiences net volatility transmission to Iran, Russia, and the US respectively, whereas it is a net volatility receiver from Saudi Arabia. Also based on gravity models, the analysis confirms the existence of impact, reaction and adjustment asymmetry of Eastern Europe and Eurasia’s crude oil bilateral trade flow to the increasing and decreasing changes of GDP per capita in both exporting and importing countries and transportation costs as well through different magnitude among network participants. The analysis suggests that regulators may identify the network’s dynamic ranking of systemic risk contributions (risk management) that most threaten economic system stability.
Summary of the presentation:
This article characterizes a dynamic crude oil trade network of Eastern Europe and Eurasia using the network connectedness measure of Diebold and Yilmaz (2014, 2015) and the existence of asymmetric reaction of crude oil bilateral trade flow in response to the positive and negative changes of its key determinants using the nonlinear panel autoregressive distributed lag model during 1980–2018. Results indicate the existence of large and time-varying spillovers with a considerable explanatory power among the crude oil trade flow volatility of Iran, Russia, the US, and Saudi Arabia in Eastern Europe and Eurasia crude oil trade network. The findings also show that the crude oil trade flow of Eastern Europe and Eurasia experiences net volatility transmission to Iran, Russia, and the US respectively, whereas it is a net volatility receiver from Saudi Arabia. Also based on gravity models, the analysis confirms the existence of impact, reaction and adjustment asymmetry of Eastern Europe and Eurasia’s crude oil bilateral trade flow to the increasing and decreasing changes of GDP per capita in both exporting and importing countries and transportation costs as well through different magnitude among network participants. The analysis suggests that regulators may identify the network’s dynamic ranking of systemic risk contributions (risk management) that most threaten economic system stability.